European climate in relation to
North Atlantic SST record

Posted 27 September 2010

 At the weblog WUWT on 26th September 2010 the subject Is marked as MUST-READ. The full title is: “European climate, Alpine glaciers and Arctic ice in relation to North Atlantic SST record“ by Juraj Vanovcan and shall show that decadal oscillation in North Atlantic sea surface temperature is the driving force behind observed variations in European climate during 20th century. Long-term North Atlantic SST trend is well correlated to European temperature station record, Alpine glacier retreat/advance and changes in Arctic ice extent as well.[1]

This conclusion is particularly based on the North Atlantic SST record since 1850, and the fact that the 20th century record shows regular cyclical pattern of warming and cooling, which the author identifies cycle length of 65 years, with cold minimums reached in 1910 and 1975 and warm maximums in 1940 and 2005. In support a figure comparing: North Atlantic SST record compared to European ground stations, is presented (as shown also here –left-).According the author there are several points worth of interest (extracts only):

  1. 1. The rate of warming in 1910-1940 period has been equal with the warming period 1975-2005. ......

    2.  There has been pronounced cooling period since 1940 until 1980, which completely erased the early century warming against the 19th century average.

  2. ….. 
  3. 3. The overall warming trend since 1900 (0.6 deg C/century for SST and 0.9 deg C/century for the station record) is partially created by the fact, that beginning of the century starts with the cycle minimum and ends with the cycle maximum. ……
  4. 4. Despite a string of cold years in early 1940s (much more pronounced in the Central/Eastern European record), individual years in 1940-1950 decade were comparably warm as during the last decade. ………

In principle we can fully agree with the points raised, except that to our research the warming in the 1910s started at Spitsbergen in winter 1918/19 and subsequently the Northern Hemisphere until 1940; see: http://www.arctic-warming.com/ . As cold period the years 1940 to 1975 are indicated, followed by a warming that peaked in 2005. Since than a cooling returned, which the author expects will follow the SST record and to mimic of the 1940-1975 cooling trend.

While certain aspects with regard to the influence of SST are convincingly explained, the impact of anthropogenic forcing to activities in the marine environment has not even been raised. After all, the sudden arrival of the string of extreme cold years in the early 1940s, most pronounced in Europe (item 4, above), did presumably not came out of the blue, but had been caused by naval war activities since September 1939, as discussed thoroughly at: http://climate-ocean.com/. Further material at: http://www.oceanclimate.de/